Thursday, June 30, 2005

It's time for Madson to step up...

Here's some stats, because I just love them. Look carefully at the difference between Madson and Padilla. Some key stats:

Runs against average:
Pad - 6.42
Mad - 3.54

Fielding Independent (FIP):
Pad - 7.45
Mad - 3.26

Over the second half of the year, a starter will accumulate approximately 100 innings, while a reliever will accumulate maybe 35. That's 65 innings. Using FIP, we can expect Madson to use those inning a little more effectively than Padilla. Madson would give up approximately 23.5 runs in those innings (65/9X3.26). Padilla, 53.8 (65/9X7.45). That's a difference of 30 runs, or about 3 games in the pythag model.

If Madson doesn't switch to the starter role right now, and the Phils miss the playoffs by 2 games, we'll know why.


At 5:21 AM, Blogger Oisín/Wizlah said...

I'm with you PK. I'm still amazed at the jump in Padilla's GB/FB ratio between 2002 and 2003 - and it's on that basis that I think the guy is salvagable in the next year or two. I think he suffered from decent coaching when people started figuring out his breaking stuff, yet he still managed a comparable number of strikeouts in 03 as he did in 02. Of course, with ooog-get there, it means another flyballer in the bullpen . . .


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