Thursday, February 23, 2006

A quick post on park factors

What with the fences being moved out and all, I just wanted to point out that last year, the Phils played in a park which inflated runs by only (cumulatively) 3% in 2005, and 1% in 2004.

UPDATE: I just checked and realized those links don't work. Try going here and scrolling to the bottom to access the park data worksheets.

Also note that in 2005, the Phils NL East opponents played in neutral to extreme pitchers parks, with the Braves in a neutral park, Fla and Wash suppressing runs at a 4% rate, and the Mets at a 3% rate. Most park factors (ESPN) simply calculate park factors by dividing runs at home against runs on the road. This is wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

The moving out of the fences might suppress runs a teeny, tiny bit in '06 (although I expect the additional doubles to left will mitigate this effect), but the park factor "experts" will still point to the fact that the Phils will (likely) score more runs at home than on the road. Of course, if you play half of your road games in pitchers parks, this is expected.

Just a little reminder as we head into the new season and all the yahoos on WIP start to bellyache about this subject, as you know they will.


At 1:48 PM, Anonymous Tom G said...

Didn't the Phillies brass say that the changes to the park would deflate the home run totals by 10 or 12 percent by their calculations?

At 8:57 AM, Blogger Pawnking said...

Maybe they said that, but we will see. But even if it does, then the HR total goes down about 20 HRs for the season, or one every 5 games.

Do you think the average fan will be able to tell the difference?

Also, there will likely be an increase in doubles and triples, as well.


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