Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Why the Phillies will win the World Series

Currently the month is June, and the Phillies are in second place in the NL East, and reeling like a cheap fishing rod. So why can I posit that the Phillies will win the World Series? Easy.

1) We have only one team to beat in the NL East. The Braves are not going to make the playoffs this year. The Nats and Marlins also have virtually no shot That leaves only the Mets to battle the Phillies for the NL Eastern crown.

2) Though the Mets have a great 1-2 punch, the rest of their rotation is weak (See Jose Lima, who actually started 3 games for them this year). Furthermore, I question the ability of Tom Glavin and Pedro Martinez to remain effective over the entire season.

3) The Mets have played about as well as can be imagined, and the Phils have played as poorly as can be imagined. Things will even out.

4) The Phils weakest areas have been starting pitching and defense. With the worst starters banished, and the defense cannot help but get better, the Phils should improve simply due to regression..

5) Even if, for some reason, the Phils don't win the NL East, the Phils will likely win the WC. They came close last year, and the contenders for the WC all have their weaknesses

6) Once the Phils get to the postseason, their 1-2 punch with Myers and Hamels can compete with anybody. If there's anything the Astros demonstrated last year, it's the fact that if you have 2 dominant starters, you can go deep in the playoffs.

7) Most important, the Philly faithful seem to have officially written off this team for dead. As we recall from last year, it was only when officially given no chance that the Phils started playing with resolve and ability. Since this has happened in June and not September, we have plenty of time to make up any lost ground in the NL East and the WC.


At 12:17 PM, Blogger Jerry W. said...

Thank you. A sane voice. A recognition of the 162 game-length of the baseball season. A realistic look at the actual situation, rather than a knee-jerk reach for facile hatred. Are you sure you're from this town?

At 4:28 PM, Blogger John Salmon said...

Your scenario is plausible if you assume that the Mets aren't really a .600 team. They certainly seem to have enough weaknesses-you've pointed out some of them-to be more of a 90 win team than the 95 or 100 win team their current record suggests they are.

I wouldn't rule out the Pils, but I'd really like to see a different leadoff hitter, and Lieber and Wolf pitching well, before I make up my mind.

At 5:04 AM, Anonymous Tom G said...

Dude, PK, what is in your Kool-Aid?

I like to think I am relatively level-headed when it comes to these things [maybe I'm not? I feel like I am...Sorry, I watched "A Beautiful Mind" last night] and there is no way they are catching the Mets.

As I wrote this morning, the Phils aren't this bad and the Mets aren't this good, but 8.5 games [and counting] is just too much.

Wild Card at best.

At 5:12 AM, Blogger Tom Goodman said...

No doubt about it, the Mets have an old rotation with Pedro, Glavine and Hernandez. But those guys keep on winning. Now, they have added Alay Soler, who appears to be a good one. As for their lineup, it is scary. Reyes is one of the best leadoff men in the game; LoDuca is arguably the best number two hitter in the league apart from Utley; numbers 3 - 5 are lethal; number six isn't even their regular guy. I don't see anyone catching them. As for the WC, it is going to come from the Central or West, not the East.

At 9:09 AM, Blogger Oisín/Wizlah said...

PK, clearly we drink the same coffee (I don't do Kool-aid). There is no doubt this is serious.

But to correct you, tom, Jose Reyes managed a lofty OBP of .300 last year. .300 in 161 games. He is most certainly NOT the best. Paul lo duca once managed an OPS over 800. back in 2001. He's no chase utley, and he's a lot worse than others. I won't argue with three to five (but I will note that number 5 hits into an unusually high number of double plays for a number five hitter). this is a lineup which is formidable, but has problems just like our own. The truth will out over the season (especally for reyes).

Yes, we have to play better. Yes, we need a decent rotation not built out of spit and matchsticks. But the mets are not the braves. They can be caught.

At 9:53 AM, Blogger gr said...

their defense needs to get better for them to contend this year. sounds straightforward, but think about that for a second: bell, abreu, howard, and the catching position need to get better. do we honestly see that happening?

At 12:30 PM, Blogger Oisín/Wizlah said...

gr - better catching and 3b is pretty crucial. Bobby's fielding isn't going to cost us that many games, so I'm not so fussed. George S mentioned over at Beerleaguer that the sloppy defensive play is in part due to a lack of big-league catching - i'd agree but plead for the return of ruiz, who's bat wasn't great but who seemed pretty damned alert to every other aspect of the game.

At 1:47 PM, Blogger pfesfan said...

Do you still stand by the points in that post?


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